NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Like a climber lacking oxygen, the Dow had to turn back after nearing the fabled 10,000 summit Friday, but market watchers expect the blue chip index to break through next week.
While the Dow Jones industrial average toyed with the psychological 10,000 barrier, at one time coming within about 40 points of the mark, it fell back, largely on technology weakness.
The Dow closed down 21.09 at 9876.35 on Friday.
The broader markets fared little better. That same technology strain pulled down the Nasdaq composite, which finished the week down 30.71 to 2,381.54.
Stock experts expect the Dow's eventual stand atop 10,000 to be brief. John Murphy, market analyst at MurphyMorris.com, said the elation will also probably be short-lived.
"The actual pattern in the past is that when we hit these thousand marks we tend to go a little bit beyond them because it does provoke some buying," said Murphy.
"But very often then we get a correction of some type. I suspect that actually we're closer to the end of this move than a beginning."
Others on Wall Street were voicing similarly cautious remarks about whether breaking 10,000 signals even more strength to come next week and beyond.
"If we do exceed it, I don't think anybody comes rushing in at 25-times earnings and says 'O.K., now I believe I gotta go after it,'" said Larry Wachtel, market analyst at Prudential Securities.
"I don't think the money managers are going to go rushing into stocks just simply because we got to Dow 10,000."
Richard McCabe, chief market analyst at Merrill Lynch, told the Moneyline News Hour with Lou Dobbs that the current market upswing will have to include a wider breadth of stocks in order to be sustainable.
"What's going to happen is that unless the advance broadens out to include more stocks, the advance may peter out by early April, maybe a little above 10,000," McCabe said. "I think we might see some kind of pullback in the spring that might particularly effect these very extended large-cap, blue-chip stocks that are driving the Dow and the S&P."
McCabe added the Dow will likely tumble to the 8,000 range before recovering in the second half of the year. [233K WAV] or [233K AIFF]
The Dow 10,000 mark is more of a icon than an actual market event, say market pros like David Katz, stock analyst at Matrix Asset Advisor, basically no different from 9,999 or 10,001.
"We're just going to blow through it and it will have a lot of fanfare but in reality it doesn't mean a whole lot to investors," he explained.
In fact, said Katz, the psychological factor of 10,000 makes it even more likely that investors will turn just as quickly on the markets.
"They're getting into the market simply because it's going higher. As a result, when they get spooked, they want to get out quickly. There are a lot of momentum players in the market."
Other spooky happenings
If just being near 10,000 is enough to spook some investors, they may get downright frightened next week when "triple witching" occurs.
Triple witching is the quarterly expiration of futures and options contracts on major stock indexes, and the first one of the year will occur Friday.
After the expirations occur, these traders are flush with money and usually turn around and plow it right back into the market. On these witching days, the volume is often one-third to one-half higher than normal, and volatility is more likely.
The Buffett factor
As if all that were not enough, there is also the Buffett factor. On Saturday, billionaire investor Warren Buffett issues his annual letter to shareholders. In the past, the "Oracle of Omaha's" annual discussions about the stock market, valuations and investment holdings have had considerable influence in the market, at least in the short term.
Government figures to be released next week will also enter into the mix. The most notable, perhaps, is February's Consumer Price Index figure, to be issued Thursday by the U.S. Labor Department.
The CPI and its core rate -- which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors -- gauges inflation at the retail level.
On Friday, The Labor Department's February producer price index indicated wholesale prices dropped 0.4 percent while the core inflation rate remained unchanged.
It was enough to show inflation continuing to be under control but investors still were able to find some underlying concerns elsewhere.
Specifically, oil prices climbed throughout the week but Kate Warne, energy analyst at Edward Jones, said investors shouldn't worry about rising oil prices spiking inflation in the coming months.
"We'll see somewhat of a rise in inflation, although actually the overall impact of oil prices on inflation is pretty small, so it won't be a major pick-up in inflation," said Warne.
"Where consumers are likely to feel the pinch more is at the pump, where gasoline prices are likely to rise."
Going forward, oil stocks may be a good bet, according to Marshal Acuff, equity strategist at Salomon Smith Barney.
"Our analysts are very enthusiastic about a successful outcome of the potential cutback in production, which would imply higher oil prices," he said.
"I think that's why oil prices have already risen and many of the oil energy stocks have also firmed up here recently."
While the stock market will have many things to consider next week, even the most jaded pros probably won't be able to resist keeping an eye on the Dow's approach on 10,000.
Some, like Alan "Ace" Greenberg, chairman of Bear Stearns, are reluctant to admit it, though.
"Whether the averages are at 10,000 or 9,800, it makes no difference to me. But don't misunderstand me, I like it better when it goes up rather than when it goes down.